Feb 28, 2025; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first base Bryce Harper (3) looks on in the dugout against the Boston Red Sox at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Is there any date on the calendar better than Opening Day for a Major League Baseball season?
I argue that there's not, and I know I may be in the minority. Call me weird, or strange, but Opening Day ranks just ahead of Thanksgiving on the calendar of days I look forward to the most.
Not only is it more indicative of warmer weather being just around the corner than the stupidity of Groundhog Day, but it's also a sign that for 162 of the next 186 days there is guaranteed to be a baseball game to watch or discuss, and then, as it does every March, hope springs eternal that your favorite team offers you a dessert option of bonus baseball in October.
For the Phillies, it's the commencement of another chase for a championship that has eluded them for the past 16 seasons, with six of those seasons ending in utter October heartbreak - including the previous three.
But the pursuit is on for the team as they try to not only defend their 2024 N.L. East-winning crown, but win that trophy that the signings of Bryce Harper and Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler seemed to promise.
It's one last ride for this core as currently situated. The winds of change are going to blowing in at some point for a team that has most of it's higher-priced players in their 30s.
You may not realize it, but only half of the players (13) who are on the Phillies Opening Day roster played for the team in 2022 when they went to the World Series. The numbers are dwindling and with the uncertainty of contract discussions with three of them - Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez - and a few other guys needing to have productive seasons to be considered a part of the future, that number is sure to be down to single digits after this season.
So, the band will get together for one last tour, and hope it ends on the biggest of baseball stages in late October or early November, and if not, we'll all start counting down the days to Opening Day 2026.
But what may happen before then? Here's one man's take on 10 things that could play out in the 2025 Phillies season.
He's been a runner-up twice, and arguments can be made that he could have won the award during both seasons. And while he's not the favorite in 2025 - all the pre-season hype is around Pirates sensation Paul Skenes - Wheeler is the most consistently effective pitcher in all of baseball.
If the Phillies are going to win anything, it will be on the shoulders of their starting pitchers, and Wheeler is at the top of that rotation.
One could argue that he's the top pitcher in the sport, but there's no doubt he's in the top five.
Wheeler is a quiet assassin on the mound and doesn't really like to talk about individual accolades. He's a team-first guy, which is why he's beloved in the clubhouse, but he wants that award and he's going to pursue it with every start - beginning with Opening Day.
Zack Wheeler's 4Ks. pic.twitter.com/Ytits6yge1
And as long as he remains healthy as the "old man" of the team (he turns 35 in May) Wheeler might just put together the best season of his career to finally get over the Cy Young hump - and deservedly so.
The Phillies weren't really the talk of baseball this offseason. They didn't sign one player to a multi-year contract, instead signing guys to one-year deals to bolster the team on the margins.
There are five brand new names on the Phillies Opening Day roster that weren't here at all a season ago - Max Kepler, Jesus Luzardo, Jordan Romano, Joe Ross and Carlos Hernandez.
Kepler is an odd fit, because he makes an already lefty-heavy lineup even more left-handed, but he does have some good pop in his bat and he made a swing adjustment with Phillies' hitting coach Kevin Long, and had a monster spring. Numbers in exhibition games should never be taken too seriously, but he's thrilled with where his swing is to enter the season. While the jury is still out on how he'll fare against left-handed pitchers, Kepler should be a middle of the order power threat who could reach the 30 homer plateau.
Luzardo just needs to avoid the injury bug - that may be asking a lot based on his track record - but he has electric stuff and would be a No. 2 starter on at least a dozen teams in the majors. He's a No. 4 starter for the Phillies (don't be confused by the fact that he's pitching the second game of the season. The Phillies wanted to reward Cristopher Sanchez with starting the Home Opener and needed another lefty to split up Wheeler and Aaron Nola, thus Luzardo in that spot). If he's healthy, he should be favored to win on most nights he starts.
Romano was hurt in 2024, but for two years before that, he was one of the best relievers in the sport. He took a one-year deal because he's banking on himself, and the Phillies were willing to oblige, not wanting to commit big money or longer-term contracts to relief pitchers, who tend to be more volatile in production from one year to the next. It's a good risk worth taking for a player who was excellent as recently as the year prior.
Ross is interesting because of his versatility. He may not wow you with numbers, but he was a steady Eddie for the Brewers last season in whatever role they used him, and the Phillies could use that same versatility in their bullpen this season.
This is the hill I'm dying on the most this year as I believe Stott will take that next step he should have taken last year but was hampered by a wonky elbow that affected his swing for much of 2024.
But the one thing Stott changed for the better last year was his ability to be more selective. He had a career high in walks with 53 and there's still room to grow that even more.
The Bryson Stott bounceback season is loading… pic.twitter.com/gyyd1UeUzP
I see a season of a .280 batting average with a .350 on base percentage, 15 homers, 30 steals, 35 doubles and gold glove defense at second base.
Oh, and the Phillies will have a few other All-Stars as well - Bryce Harper, Wheeler, Sanchez and Jose Alvarado. Let's get to him real quick...
While that may not seem like a big number, it is for relief pitchers. Alvarado has never done it before in a season - and he's a strikeout pitcher.
His stuff looked so good this spring though, and he's slimmed down, and re-focused - and could be the most important piece to the Phillies bullpen puzzle this season.
José Alvarado has 15 strikeouts in 6 innings this spring.
0.00 ERA.
Threw 102.4 mph today. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/M8dmGbeOhL
The Phillies do know his health history, so they won't overuse him - but I think he can hit that 100 strikeout plateau in 65-70 innings, and he'll get that with good health, and be the anchor of a Phillies bullpen desperately in need of one.
Not everything can by rosy for the Phillies in 2025. I have given you four positive outcomes so far, so it's time to look at a few that might go the other way.
Let's start with Trea Turner, who I'm starting to feel like is a very good player who has a hard time making that last step to becoming an elite player. His stats will always end up being solid - and of all the righties he's the one I expect to provide the most productivity - but I don't think his numbers will be "special." If he gives you a .290 season with 25 homers and 30 steals, you'll take it, but there will be a part of you yearning for a little more. And that always seems to be the case with Turner - you wish he could give you just 10-15% more. It's weird.
J.T. Realmuto is not the same catcher he was three seasons ago. But he's still pretty darn good in comparison to other catchers around the sport. But one has to wonder if his workload and his age (he's now 34) are starting to catch up to him a bit. After six straight seasons from 2017-2022 of posting an OPS of .782 or higher (with four seasons over .800), Realmuto has seen that number regress each of the past two seasons. His .751 OPS in 2024 was the lowest since his rookie season in 2015. Even if it drops another tick - to say, .740 - it'll still be better than most catchers in the sport, but it won't benefit the Phillies Jekkyl and Hyde offense.
Nick Castellanos may be the hardest working player in the clubhouse. He gets to the ballpark early, takes early batting practice. Works on his outfield defense, and continues to try to be the best player he can. Here's the thing - he has a weakness that teams exploit consistently, and it is what makes him a streaky hitter. The Phillies can't afford to have him go into another prolonged slump this season. Last year it was the first five weeks of the season. The year before it was in August. In 2022 it was in the postseason. He's prone to it, but the Phillies don't have reliable productivity from the right side and need it badly. Unfortunately, I don't see it from Castellanos this season. I expect more of the same - and while at times he's scalding hot and can carry a team, he's been worth less than 1.0 WAR per season since he arrived in Philadelphia, and if he's not better than that, he's not going to help the team enough.
The only thing more perplexing to me than expecting Marsh to hit lefties is handing the ball to Taijuan Walker to start game sin 2025.
The difference is, Walker isn't expected to stick in the rotation long once Ranger Suarez returns in a few weeks. But Marsh is expected to be the every day centerfielder.
In his career, Marsh has slashed .216/.276/.306 against lefties. That's not good. Even worse is he's struck out 150 time sin 347 at bats against lefties. And that's suddenly going to change?
BRANDON MARSH OFF A LEFTY BECAUSE YES HE CAN pic.twitter.com/UtnKWoMsO1
I worry about Kepler in this vein as well. His lifetime track record isn't much better against lefties (.221/.292/.363), although it's a little more passable.
The Phillies best option is to platoon Marsh, but Johan Rojas hasn't shown he can hit anyone at the major league level yet.
The outfield is by far the biggest Phillies weakness this season. Which brings me to another hot take...
Kepler may have a solid season, but because he's on a one-year deal, he may look to grab some money elsewhere. Marsh is a strong platoon outfielder who is better suited defensively for a corner spot, and the Phillies will look to trade Castellanos in the final year of his deal.
Want me to stick my neck out further and predict the outfielders next season? How about Bryce Harper, Justin Crawford and Kyle Tucker?
I know, I know, get your head back into 2025. Fine. Three more prognostications.
I'm buying the hype on Painter. I've seen him throw live in-person and really like what I see. I think he has the make-up - the poise especially - for such a young player that he will overcome any mistakes and let it fuel him to get better.
The Phillies keep saying "Julyish" for his arrival. I keep saying June 16-19 in Miami. No matter when it is though, he's going to end up with 15ish starts this season and he's going to enter the Rookie of the Year conversation. He won't win it, but there there will be a lot of chatter about it.
My New Top 10 Pitching Prospect Rankings for #FantasyBaseball.
1. Andrew Painter
2. Jackson Jobe
3. Noah Schultz
4. Bubba Chandler
5. Travis Sykora
6. Alejandro Rosario
7. Kumar Rocker
8. Quinn Mathews
9. Chase Dollander
10. Cade Hortonpic.twitter.com/okOCbQblMr
Oh, and here's betting he's a key postseason contributor.
I have them at 91-71 and finishing as runner up to the Atlanta Braves in the N.L. East. The reason is the division is going to be tough. You have three behemoths in the Braves, Phillies and Mets and the Nationals are improved and an up-and-comer, so the race will be close to the end, but Aaron Nola clinches a playoff berth as w wild card in the final week of the season with a win at Citizens Bank Park over the Marlins.
But they still fall short of their ultimate goal.
I have them beating the Diamondbacks in the Wild Card round and upsetting the Dodgers in the NLDS, but losing to Atlanta in the NLCS.
And if you want a World Series prediction, I have the Texas Rangers defeating the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS and the Braves defeating them to take home the crown for the second time in five years.
