Apr 11, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies in the second inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports Kyle Ross
The Phillies pulled off a stunner Sunday morning, acquiring LHP Jesús Luzardo and catcher Paul McIntosh from the Miami Marlins for a pair of prospects in shortstop Starlyn Caba and outfielder Emaarion Boyd.
It marks the biggest trade by the two NL East rivals since the one that brought catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies in February of 2019.
Considering that Realmuto has become arguably the greatest catcher in franchise history and Sixto Sánchez has proven to be a dud for the Marlins, that’s ended up being a very lopsided deal in favor of the Phillies.
Will this deal be as one-sided? Probably not. But it has the chance to be another really good deal for the Phillies.
Here are three major takeaways from what figures to be the last major trade of 2024 for the Phillies.
Luzardo is coming off of a lost season where left elbow tightness and then a lumbar stress reaction limited him to just 12 starts in which he posted a 5.00 ERA.
That isn’t normally the profile of someone you’re excited to trade for, but Luzardo posted a 3.48 ERA across 50 starts for the Fish between 2022 and 2023. He's 27 years old, and can't become a free agent until after the 2026 season.
Caba is an intriguing prospect, who is believed to have an A+ glove at shortstop and has demonstrated an ability to steal bases. He had been the No. 4 prospect in the Phillies' system entering the day, according to MLB Pipeline. But he’s also only 19 years old, and it’s unclear exactly how good of a hitter he’s going to be.
Boyd — an 11th round pick in 2022 — posted a .647 OPS over 96 games for High-A Jersey Shore last year.
You never want to part with any young talent, but it feels fair to say this package of prospects wouldn’t have gotten the deal done for the Phillies last offseason. And if Luzardo proves healthy in 2025, it likely wouldn’t have been enough to acquire him at the deadline.
Is there some risk here that Luzardo proves to be injury prone? Probably. But it feels worth the upside given that they didn’t have to give up any of Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller or Justin Crawford to make it happen.
Luzardo has two remaining years of team control before free agency, which will guarantee the Phillies a second lefty in their rotation in 2026 along with Cristopher Sánchez. Suárez can become a free agent after the 2025 season.
They currently project to have three lefties in their starting rotation in 2025 with Luzardo, Suárez and Sánchez. The possibility of having a rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Sánchez, Luzardo and Suárez for a year — with the aforementioned Painter also looming — is pretty intriguing.
With that group, gone are the concerns about whether Taijuan Walker or a non-roster invitee can be an effective No. 5 starter. It may also give the Phillies their best path towards keeping Suárez and Painter fresh for the postseason, at which point one or both could shift to the bullpen.
Dave Dombrowski on Alec Bohm: ‘I Think He’s Going To Come Out and Have a Tremendous Season’ @OnPattison https://t.co/TxRSICRddw
Of course, an alternative option now is to consider trade offers for Suárez, who could net you another late-game reliever or a third baseman in the event you trade Alec Bohm. Given that Matt Gelb of The Athletic previously reported that the Phillies were willing to hear offers on the All-Star lefty before his contract year, it can’t be ruled out.
The guess here is that the Phillies will keep Suárez for 2025. But he hired Scott Boras to represent him last week. The Phillies — whether by design or coincidence — countered by landing a comparable lefty. You can’t help but feel that a year from now, Suárez will be signing elsewhere in free agency, with the Phillies collecting draft-pick compensation after he rejects a qualifying offer.
Even before the Phillies acquired Luzardo, On Pattison had their 2025 luxury tax payroll calculated at $294.42 million. Internally, the Phillies — likely already accounting for a handful of players not currently in the organization or on the 40-man roster who will inevitably be needed over a 162-game season — had an even higher number.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much Friday when discussing the signing of Max Kepler and how much flexibility the Phillies still had.
"Well, I don't want to say it's a tight payroll in the sense that, I mean, from an ownership perspective I don't think I've ever gone to John [Middleton] on anything and [had] him say 'No' don't do something," Dombrowski said Friday. "But you still try to keep things in perspective. ... I don't know what the exact payroll is, but we're over $300 million. And the threshold, everybody we sign is a major penalty at this point. So you're cognizant of that."
$301 million is the important number to keep in mind here. That's the the third and final luxury tax threshold, dubbed "the Steve Cohen tax." For any overages beyond $301 million, the Phillies have to pay a 110% tax. That's not insignificant, even for an organization like the Phillies that consistently flexes its financial muscle. With the addition of Luzardo — who MLB Trade Rumors projects will make $6 million in arbitration this upcoming season — our projection for their current 40-man roster luxury tax number is $300.42 million. The effective number that the Phillies have to plan for knowing it will take more than just those 40 players is even higher.
That doesn't mean $301 million is a hard cap. But with steep penalties for any more spending, the Phillies probably have to be a little more particular with any additional signings or trades. So no, they aren't going to sign Alex Bregman to a deal that pays him 25+ million in 2025. Even the idea of bringing back Jeff Hoffman on a multi-year deal that pays him $10+ million per year on a multi-season deal seems unlikely at this point. The Phillies could create some space under the $301 million mark by trading Suárez or Bohm, but they would have to backfill their roles on the roster, particularly in the case of Bohm.
And the Phillies certainly will want to leave themselves some flexibility to make additions in the summer. There will be a big difference in going into the trade deadline, say, $5 million over the $301 million mark, as opposed to $25 million over it.
So fans were clamoring for a big move. The trade for Luzardo certainly qualifies as one. Don't be surprised if things are pretty quiet the rest of the offseason on the Phillies front.
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