Aug 27, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler (26) fields a fly ball against the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN's Jeff Passan reports that new Phillies outfielder Max Kepler is expected to play left field for the club. Nick Castellanos will again man right field, where he played 162 games last season.
When news of the Kepler signing first broke, many believed that the Phils would consider moving Castellanos to the other outfield corner. Kepler is the better defender between the two, and neither player has much experience in left: Castellanos has played 23 games in LF over the course of his career, while Kepler has played none.
Under ideal circumstances, a team puts the better defender in RF. But it also makes sense for the better defender to take on the challenge of a transition. The Phillies and Castellanos have worked hard to play to the slugger's strengths in right. (Think about his trademark sliding catches on shallow balls hit to his left.)
Nick Castellanos has made the same exact sliding catch three times already this postseason. That man is FOCUSED. pic.twitter.com/UdLLn2wR05
Against right-handed pitchers, the Phillies will likely use a Kepler/Marsh/Castellanos outfield.
Against lefties, Johan Rojas will probably patrol center. That leaves two left-handed bats for left field, making Kepler something of an odd fit as compared to, say, Austin Hays (who the Phillies sent packing).
Brandon Marsh vs LHP as a Phillie:
.217/.293/.358, 40.3 K% in 134 PAs
He should start more against LHP but it’s not like he hasn’t struggled
— Joe Edinger (@Joe_Edinger) March 31, 2024
Given Marsh's career .582 OPS against LHP and Kepler's $10 million contract, it's probably safe to bet that the latter will start more games against southpaws. Kepler's career .655 OPS against LHP isn't particularly impressive, but it's significantly better than Marsh's. Kepler also strikes out less often, which would help balance out the free-swinging stars in the Phillies' lineup.
Manager Rob Thomson could always ride the hot hand, of course, or look to a right-handed bat such as Weston Wilson. Wilson has a shiny 1.096 OPS against LHP in his major league career, albeit over a small sample size (60 plate appearances).
It's not the cleanest outfield setup, nor is it much of an upgrade to last year's stuation. That has led to speculation that the Phils have something else in the works.
The Max Kepler signing has to be preceding another move. By paying him $10 million, it puts them just $5 million under the $301 million luxury tax mark. You're really going to do that for a player who doesn't solve any existing issues?
While there's still time for the Phillies to make a bigger move to shake up their roster this offseason, the clock is ticking.
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